It's not just odd failure to mention Biden tax credit. Within Europe, several, you know, actual democracies have lavish pro-natalist policies, France in particular 1/https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1418741348224667651 …
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These policies work! French fertility higher than rest of EU, and actually us too 2/
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Probably going to write about the return of "family values" soon. But a brief thread on the economics. Huge evidence that spending more on children does a lot for their future health and productivity. But should more children per se also be a goal? 4/
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Low fertility does have economic effects. It means a higher old-age dependency ratio, making safety net harder to afford. It also contributes to secular stagnation: weak investment demand => persistent low interest rates 5/
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But the first issue, while real, is often overstated. Remember how retiring baby boomers were going to cause fiscal catastrophe? Well, boomers started hitting 65 in 2010. No catastrophe yet 6/
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SSA projects that Social Security outlays will rise 1% of GDP by 2070. Other demographic effects on budget — Medicare and Medicaid also affected by aging. But still we're looking at couple of % of GDP — not earth-shattering 7/
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Sorry, here's SSA link 8/ https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2020/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html#200732 …
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Secular stagnation is a problem for maintaining full employment *through monetary policy alone*. But you can also use fiscal stimulus — and low interest rates mean debt is not a serious problem 9/
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So the economic case for pro-natalism is really weak — so you're left with some kind of "family values" argument (I mean, look at how fatherhood has mellowed and matured Donald Trump) or, not-so-hidden subtext, the need for more white Christians ... 10/
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