while I was glossing over the metaphor details i also started to wonder if an obvious way of kick-starting a leap to high income is to extract resources from a benighted oppressed majority and not bother with their education while pouring them into lots of first world cities
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so overall chapter two made me somewhat less confident in his thesis too be continued
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eigenrobot Retweeted Imperium
eigenrobot added,
Imperium @St8OfExceptionReplying to @eigenrobotThe Chinese problem is that their wealth, and hence development, is extremely concentrated. Sure New York might have more disposable income than Kentucky (might), but not even close to the degree to which Beijing beats Gansu. pic.twitter.com/zVYWtu5Dht4 replies 2 retweets 49 likesShow this thread -
ok next chapter (this is the actual Chapter 2) is covering reports of (i) supply chains relocating out of country to Bangladesh, India, Ethiopia, and (ii) robotic automation displacing factory workers in country scant on hard numbers but I would believe that this is significant
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he also frames Belt and Road as partly a jobs program for domestic construction industries which have basically run out of major projects in country and as a failure along these lines because (i) the scale isn't there, and (ii) most partners want domestic labor
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the rest of the chapter makes the same basic claims about the importance of education for transitioning to a high income economy starting to think this book would have been better as a blog post
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chapter 3 is better. he sketches out his notion of a failure mode for the Chinese economy and eventually nation
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here he uses mexico as his illustrative model many of you may be too young to remember that mexico used to be a major US exporter in the 90s. recall that this is not the current state of Mexico. rather its basically a failed state
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he highlights a process wherein mexicos population was insufficiently educated to make it to stable high income status, and then china ate their lunch in manufactures exporting, and then everyone joined gangs. gg mexico
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Replying to @eigenrobot
imo IQ would make the difference unaccounted for here
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im not sure about this owing to the malnutrition numbers havent seen the deets yet but the claims are pretty dire
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