ok next chapter (this is the actual Chapter 2) is covering reports of (i) supply chains relocating out of country to Bangladesh, India, Ethiopia, and (ii) robotic automation displacing factory workers in country scant on hard numbers but I would believe that this is significant
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he also frames Belt and Road as partly a jobs program for domestic construction industries which have basically run out of major projects in country and as a failure along these lines because (i) the scale isn't there, and (ii) most partners want domestic labor
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the rest of the chapter makes the same basic claims about the importance of education for transitioning to a high income economy starting to think this book would have been better as a blog post
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chapter 3 is better. he sketches out his notion of a failure mode for the Chinese economy and eventually nation
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here he uses mexico as his illustrative model many of you may be too young to remember that mexico used to be a major US exporter in the 90s. recall that this is not the current state of Mexico. rather its basically a failed state
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he highlights a process wherein mexicos population was insufficiently educated to make it to stable high income status, and then china ate their lunch in manufactures exporting, and then everyone joined gangs. gg mexico
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he notes further the alleged gender imbalance of china as an exacerbating factor although I understand that may be overstated for data quality reasons he also hasnt cited everyone becoming old as a potential stabilizing factor
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apart from humanitarian issues his major concern is that CCP legitimacy (so he claims, I have no idea) rests on twin pillars of nationalism and economic growth, and if the latter sputters out maybe they lean very heavily on the former to disastrous effect maybe. ig.
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i suppose we do have precedent for this sort of thingpic.twitter.com/5xOoWQWIbB
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Replying to @eigenrobot
there's some theory that this matters? China more old more reluctant? Argentina in 82:pic.twitter.com/tE9wtkORLx
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yeah i suspect its important otoh if they try to care for all of those old people it will be breathtakingly expensive feels like a major trap
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