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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      reading this. its a frustrating bookpic.twitter.com/9pU85vAHml

      12 replies 7 retweets 171 likes
      Show this thread
    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      this is basically his thesis or contribution: china is not developing its human capital, it will hit the middle income trap and not escape, this will destabilize china and this is bad for the world because (i) Chinese people exist in the world and (ii) also it would wreck tradepic.twitter.com/UhBu04EpZ8

      8 replies 3 retweets 88 likes
      Show this thread
    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      so ok fine

      1 reply 0 retweets 39 likes
      Show this thread
    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      the introduction was cleanly laid out but contained the first irritation he writes in a kind of pleading tone entreating readers to be cool with china even though the ccp are assholes, you know, musnt make them upset, you know how they can be i get it, ok, but found it grating

      3 replies 2 retweets 87 likes
      Show this thread
    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      the second chapter was a mess he uses a tortured Chutes and Ladders metaphor to explain development and the middle income trap in particular, and explains why china is vulnerable to it (low levels of rural ed, developmental damage from environment)

      2 replies 0 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      the economic reasoning was sound but kind of a construct with not much novel data presented, just "middle income traps seem to exist" and "chinas aggregate education measures dont look too good"

      1 reply 0 retweets 54 likes
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    7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      while I was glossing over the metaphor details i also started to wonder if an obvious way of kick-starting a leap to high income is to extract resources from a benighted oppressed majority and not bother with their education while pouring them into lots of first world cities

      4 replies 0 retweets 61 likes
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    8. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 12

      so overall chapter two made me somewhat less confident in his thesis too be continued

      3 replies 0 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    9. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 13

      eigenrobot Retweeted Imperium

      v useful contexthttps://twitter.com/St8OfException/status/1414814608037015553?s=19 …

      eigenrobot added,

      Imperium @St8OfException
      Replying to @eigenrobot
      The Chinese problem is that their wealth, and hence development, is extremely concentrated. Sure New York might have more disposable income than Kentucky (might), but not even close to the degree to which Beijing beats Gansu. pic.twitter.com/zVYWtu5Dht
      4 replies 2 retweets 49 likes
      Show this thread
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 13

      ok next chapter (this is the actual Chapter 2) is covering reports of (i) supply chains relocating out of country to Bangladesh, India, Ethiopia, and (ii) robotic automation displacing factory workers in country scant on hard numbers but I would believe that this is significant

      12:18 PM - 13 Jul 2021
      • 38 Likes
      • aaaaa bbbbb ᓚᘏᗢ Duke Noble Jarl staromedve SprachDao elm
      2 replies 0 retweets 38 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 13

          he also frames Belt and Road as partly a jobs program for domestic construction industries which have basically run out of major projects in country and as a failure along these lines because (i) the scale isn't there, and (ii) most partners want domestic labor

          6 replies 1 retweet 57 likes
          Show this thread
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 13

          the rest of the chapter makes the same basic claims about the importance of education for transitioning to a high income economy starting to think this book would have been better as a blog post

          8 replies 0 retweets 50 likes
          Show this thread
        4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          chapter 3 is better. he sketches out his notion of a failure mode for the Chinese economy and eventually nation

          2 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          here he uses mexico as his illustrative model many of you may be too young to remember that mexico used to be a major US exporter in the 90s. recall that this is not the current state of Mexico. rather its basically a failed state

          5 replies 0 retweets 42 likes
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        6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          he highlights a process wherein mexicos population was insufficiently educated to make it to stable high income status, and then china ate their lunch in manufactures exporting, and then everyone joined gangs. gg mexico

          4 replies 0 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          he notes further the alleged gender imbalance of china as an exacerbating factor although I understand that may be overstated for data quality reasons he also hasnt cited everyone becoming old as a potential stabilizing factor

          2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        8. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          apart from humanitarian issues his major concern is that CCP legitimacy (so he claims, I have no idea) rests on twin pillars of nationalism and economic growth, and if the latter sputters out maybe they lean very heavily on the former to disastrous effect maybe. ig.

          5 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
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        9. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          i suppose we do have precedent for this sort of thingpic.twitter.com/5xOoWQWIbB

          5 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
          Show this thread
        10. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          the next chapter is a closer look at china's urban/rural divide in education attaching some graf's and such basically there is a segregated education system and rural-classified students (supermajority) are and have historically been hosedpic.twitter.com/RXMJzRNnqV

          3 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        11. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          perhaps they should take out loanspic.twitter.com/2Rb7YfJ0XG

          3 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        12. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          chapter wraps up with two additional claims which he will elaborate on later 1. "academic" high schools are probably fine but most students go to "vocational" diploma mills 2. in aggregate rural kids are probably stunted on account of malnutrition

          1 reply 0 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        13. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          as an aside im surprised that these numbers (eg education rates) are available abroad I would have expected CCP to either goose them or suppress them because they look pretty bad not sure what to make of this

          9 replies 0 retweets 41 likes
          Show this thread
        14. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 14

          eigenrobot Retweeted Sam Levine

          wondered about this like maybe china has a different view of what looks bad than the outside worldhttps://twitter.com/samlevine/status/1415487307973492736?s=19 …

          eigenrobot added,

          Sam Levine @samlevine
          Replying to @eigenrobot
          My limited understanding is that cadres in rural locations are judged by stuff like buildings built, roads/track laid and economic growth in general, but k-12 is not a priority.
          5 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
          Show this thread
        15. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          chapter five seems to be a discussion of the vocational high school system, which is mostly free (unlike academic high schools) and modeled after germanys system so far they sound like normal high schools in that theyre not useful for getting jobspic.twitter.com/PGCWWvGQpC

          3 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        16. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          apparently the vocational high school thing was a 2002 initiative that actually made it into provincial policy goaling very excited to see how Campbell's Law played outpic.twitter.com/YntuTKxoVv

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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        17. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          "who could have predicted this"pic.twitter.com/faqkzy5rrA

          2 replies 1 retweet 37 likes
          Show this thread
        18. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          honestly though he's ticking through problems with the high schools (no one is learning anything, students are smoking in class, whatever) and comparing this to public high schools in a typical American city and im mostly thinking "looks like china has finally made it"

          3 replies 3 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        19. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          it is disappointing to me that the authors are allegedly economists and discussing the topic of education and have not mentioned Spence even once

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        20. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          more anecdotes. apparently vocational majors are determined by policymakers rather than potential employers. this has led to things like students majoring in abacus use and repairing telephone booths and VCRs

          2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        21. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 15

          overall im coming away suspecting that chinas vocational schools are indeed completely worthless as educational institutions but nb it probably wouldnt have taken much for me to believe this

          3 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        22. End of conversation

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