I want to frame this as a meta-question. The events that provoked this are tragic, but I'm interested in the general case. Why does our society routinely fail to heed credible warnings?pic.twitter.com/mCQVhNrWpz
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I want to frame this as a meta-question. The events that provoked this are tragic, but I'm interested in the general case. Why does our society routinely fail to heed credible warnings?pic.twitter.com/mCQVhNrWpz
I recall that there were credible warning reports about global pandemics from within the last 10 years. I also recall there were credible warning reports about international Islamist terrorism prior to the 9/11 attacks. I'm sure other examples could be found too.
so what is at the root of this flaw in our administrative institutes, whether they be Condo boards or the National Security apparatus, they share the same flaw. They ignore credible warnings all the time and allow catastrophic failures to happen that would have been preventable.
What gives?
I guess explicitly we kind of get these sorts of warnings constantly, not all are credible like just the other day I got a warning from a man with an Indian accent working at the IRS telling me that my taxes were overdue and I needed to send him Amazon cards or I'd go to jail
true not all warnings are so absurd but many are. the infrastructure report card thing that keeps getting brought up is reportedly produced by an infrastructure spending pressure group for example. its probably not to be taken seriously
and people who make decisions are basically not well positioned to discriminate between genuine reports of value on one hand and scams and hysteria on the other
here are some other good examples, that people actually took seriously to varying degreespic.twitter.com/POuBUsXNKZ
so back to the original picture I see us as having decision makers working in an environment of many signals of things that need to be dealt with, many signals of uncertain value, they probably handle many of those and in any case we only hear when good signals are missed
anyway this was awful but i think its likely that the optimal number of collapsed buildings is not zero
we live in an awkward moment in human history where our tools for risk assessment are mostly an emotional evolutionary hangover but we just got to a point where risks can frequently destroy our species and planet. should prob restructure and solve it so optimal = 0 really soon.
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