Did you read this, I think I need a drinkhttps://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation?amp …
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How much can it cost to “accidentally” lose some containers of arms along the Taiwan coast?
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There are more than 55 times as many people in China as in Taiwan. Taiwan has plenty of small arms. More advanced weapons are the only thing that could help. But you don't throw those in a shopping container.
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I just don't see it. The CCP have already shown their hand that they'll brutally crack down on freedoms in suspect territories. What would an energetic resistance have to lose when they already expect vannings and abolition of rights at Beijing's will?
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I had an interminably stupid argument on a forum two days ago where I argued China will try to invade Taiwan if they could get away with it and a ~~china expert~~ guy at the state department kept saying lol no you are wrong they will be smart and use soft power
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the mechanism: if they build up enough forces then the taiwanese will just decided resistance is futile! okay well, how is that distinguishable from preparing for an invasion? wtf?
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Everyone is taking this threat seriously. Even notoriously conflict-averse Germany is moving ships over the SCS. Materially, their commitment doesn't matter, but symbolically it's letting the CCP know that the Cold War alliances aren't broken down yet.
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