claims I do not trust for a bunch of reasons which is not to say that theyre clearly not truehttps://twitter.com/TheNatlInterest/status/1387310628591841280 …
I dont think the really hot war would last more than a few days. maybe a month
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My guess is that they try to get the 7th with ASBMs immediately and are fairly successful, which means thousands or tens of thousands of deaths. Then they take Taiwan, whose military is outnumbered in two or three weeks.
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that is in all probability wildly optimistic about the performance of anti-ship ballistic missiles. to hit ships with missiles you have to know where the ships are, like, as in, have positive tracking of the ship through the flight of the missile, and that's kinda hard
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