claims I do not trust for a bunch of reasons which is not to say that theyre clearly not truehttps://twitter.com/TheNatlInterest/status/1387310628591841280 …
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Replying to @perilousphoto @eigenrobot
okay so you know how we have this replication crisis in psychology these war games are not more scientific than that anyway the outcome in taiwan depends, I'd wager, first and foremost on the circumstances not the strategy
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does japan jump into the war? does south korea jump into the war? each of those adds 20 submarines, dozens of surface ships, and hundreds of jet fighters, not to mention hundreds of thousands of troops
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Honestly it's an open question whether the American public is willing to fight a great power war for Taiwan. The IR community seems to think it's guaranteed, but domestic support is probably pretty shaky.
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Replying to @NasicaSerapio @sgodofsk and
The biggest obstacle to the US winning the war is the Chinese public would view 50,000 dead men in exchange for Taiwan and American humiliation as a cheap deal and the American public would view 50,000 dead men in exchange for Taiwan as insane.
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these things tend to escalate though hard to predict how eg us population would respond to losing a carrier war fever is real, see Summer 1914
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Yeah, opinions can change quickly when the winds blow the right way, but the PRC certainly seems to think that we're too absorbed with our internal conflicts to let loose the dogs of war.
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hitler thought this too just really hard to predict things would cascade insanely quickly
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but yeah I imagine china probably has this mindset which probably makes war more likely oh well
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