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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 25

      eigenrobot Retweeted Tim Lyons

      methods are trashhttps://twitter.com/Picketer/status/1386257315213369349 …

      eigenrobot added,

      Tim Lyons @Picketer
      *Death rate worse than 1918 flu pandemic* is (checks notes) very bad. pic.twitter.com/RNwYReFOsL
      10 replies 0 retweets 39 likes
    2. loaded dice genetic gambler‏ @SilverVVulpes Apr 25
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      I mean isn't this relative to excess mortality %? so one could argue the only reason it's true is that we have much lower age adjusted mortality now because we have better health/lives/healthcare whatever, but still true

      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 25
      Replying to @SilverVVulpes

      i dont follow exactly what you're getting at--what I mean is that the results hinge on the way they model excess morality, and I dont remotely believe their model

      4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    4. loaded dice genetic gambler‏ @SilverVVulpes Apr 25
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      right then it's me who doesn't follow now: how do they model excess mortality and what different reasonable model (probably certainly?) doesn't get this result? like where's your specific objection, asking coz that's how we get estimates on my country too, interesting if wrong

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 25
      Replying to @SilverVVulpes

      i guess I dont trust a linear model for this kind of application but that aside I especially dont believe that the model specification contribution to the error is so small that we could reliably tell the difference between a 11% and a 16% spike

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 25
      Replying to @eigenrobot @SilverVVulpes

      going further do they have an explanation for the massive dropoff in 1919, if not why not. smells like bad modeling to me what states are missing, many are absent apparently, can we even make a meaningful comparison "controlling for age" however they did that

      3:18 AM - 25 Apr 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Sernie Banders
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. loaded dice genetic gambler‏ @SilverVVulpes Apr 25
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          I'd assume something sort of opposite the dry tinder effect, unhealthy people killed by "Spanish" flu, but that should be more gradual instead of all next year so yeah, interesting to check...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. loaded dice genetic gambler‏ @SilverVVulpes Apr 25
          Replying to @SilverVVulpes @eigenrobot

          many of the other things idk if they'd change one direction or the other, but were what I was asking about, thank you

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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