methods are trashhttps://twitter.com/Picketer/status/1386257315213369349 …
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you have the best typos
right then it's me who doesn't follow now: how do they model excess mortality and what different reasonable model (probably certainly?) doesn't get this result? like where's your specific objection, asking coz that's how we get estimates on my country too, interesting if wrong
i guess I dont trust a linear model for this kind of application but that aside I especially dont believe that the model specification contribution to the error is so small that we could reliably tell the difference between a 11% and a 16% spike
Seeting aside the problems associated with measuring excess mortality, you've got a situation where the denominator is getting smaller over time, which obviously is going to amplify more recent fluctuations.
isn't that equivalent with what I said or am I missing something
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