I mean isn't this relative to excess mortality %? so one could argue the only reason it's true is that we have much lower age adjusted mortality now because we have better health/lives/healthcare whatever, but still true
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I have a really hard time figuring out what these numbers are in the first place. Regression adjustment for rates of the last five years? What does that look like? What sort of trends does this assume?
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something about “data” makes people stop asking questions “It’s math, math can’t be wrong”
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if only we had a federal death quota, then we could know if we were on track or not
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Typing "linear regression" into the twitter gif box didnt' find it but you know the one I mean
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The year immediately following 1918 shows the largest anomaly *below* trend mortality in the series, which depending on how you look at it either makes no sense or proves that we should expect a "harvest" effect and very low mortality next year.
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Love to have their time series to do some sensitivity tests with our friends Mr Prescott and Mr Hodrick
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This is going viral right now it’s nice to read some criticism of it.
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This graph isn't ruined by trash methods, it'd be a trash graph even if the methods were valid. Y-axis is measuring as a percent of prior years expected mortality. Covid beats 1918 flu on that measure because overall mortality rates are down. The "total deaths" curve is better.pic.twitter.com/Gh86FCCLIP
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