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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      many countries have financial institutions that are "private" but are basically state operations; others own industry outright. china does the latter. so other banks lend money to these chinese banks expecting it to be paid back, with the understanding that the CCP guarantees it

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      what seems to be happening is that one such chinese bank is in deep shit in a variety of ways, and the market is responding as though people don't really believe the chinese have their backs anymore

      2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
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    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      this is bad for the people who lent the chinese bank money because they lose their money, BUT it's possibly even worse for other chinese firms to whom people make loans with the expectation the CCP are guarantors, because it will be harder for them to get loans

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
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    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      I dont have any idea how much of chinas economy would be affected or how likely it is to domino. or really much of anything else about chinese financial markets. these are just the usual pattern of the start of a potential financial crisis

      3 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      one factor that may accelerate a crisis is that this may result in Chinese state bank debt being downgraded to junk status, which would be very bad for them.

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      junk ratings restrict by regulation how much junk debt a given US entity can own and it looks like a lot of the potentially-affected US institutions are probably tightly bound by those regulations this would ultimately greatly increase borrowing costs for the chinese banks

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      please keep in mind as you read this that I haven't thought about this stuff at all for a decade and I may be misunderstanding or misremembering market operation, and weight it in that light

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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    8. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      eigenrobot Retweeted blissfully married srav

      yeah. more context chinese debt may be in a really bad state right now (we don't know but there are suspicions) how much does this matter here? it probably matters a lot. more fuel for the fire, less dry powderhttps://twitter.com/thesravaka/status/1382280941809324033?s=19 …

      eigenrobot added,

      blissfully married srav @thesravaka
      Replying to @eigenrobot
      the chinese banking situation is, uh, not exactly transparent. they claim to only have ~2% nonperforming loans, but most figures i see guesstimate about 10 times that. who knows the truth but i don't think they can deal with the problem while lying this hard about it.
      1 reply 0 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    9. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      that was an atrocious mixed metaphor

      3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
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    10. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      more feeling more confident in my initial assessment https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-14/china-huarong-showdown-reveals-beijing-s-tougher-stance-on-risk …pic.twitter.com/NmFbx9vBw5

      3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14

      wowpic.twitter.com/uXn5oMXTml

      5:06 AM - 14 Apr 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 17 Likes
      • ЬᏂ​au​ϮᏂ american biologist Pecan David Fifty, Foul, A Sly Drunk acid shill zywiec
      4 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. unique indemnifier‏ @fmd4cp Apr 14
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          The spinning plate that broke the camel's back

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 14
          Replying to @fmd4cp

          thanks. thanks.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Candide III‏ @CandideIII Apr 14
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          That's not very much for a country the size of China. Per capita it's $1600. Their gross national income per capita in 2019 was reported as $10410.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Costa‏ @costa11235 Apr 14
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          That we know of 😉

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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