seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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Replying to @eigenrobot
China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).
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I think China will push onto Pratas Islands or something else that's more of a fait accompli but is still strategically vague to the US to 1.begin eroding the norm of defending Taiwan and 2. test US public and establishment commitment to the idea of defending Taiwan.
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It's the smarter play. Something you can knock over in maybe a day or so. Short and sharp and would need two large powers to go to basically go to war to rectify and no room for a proxy.
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i think the risk is that every time you take a step like this as china you freak everyone out else around you even more and there's an uptick in opposition cohesion and concentration
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True but the thing that the CCP has consistently wanted for it's entirety is Taiwan and has been out of their reach and creates an 'incomplete China'. Taiwan would be the capstone to their return to power and an assertion of it too.
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welp
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Replying to @eigenrobot @petergodofsky and
thank god japan's navy is probably the 3rd most powerful in the world now
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