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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability

      6 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
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    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but

      2 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
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    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now

      3 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
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    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome

      9 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
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    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp

      8 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
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    6. Literally Sean Bannon‏ @LiteralSheridan Apr 13
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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    8. A gram of Gramsci‏ @a_thing_to_do Apr 13
      Replying to @petergodofsky @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot

      I think China will push onto Pratas Islands or something else that's more of a fait accompli but is still strategically vague to the US to 1.begin eroding the norm of defending Taiwan and 2. test US public and establishment commitment to the idea of defending Taiwan.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    10. A gram of Gramsci‏ @a_thing_to_do Apr 13
      Replying to @petergodofsky @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot

      It's the smarter play. Something you can knock over in maybe a day or so. Short and sharp and would need two large powers to go to basically go to war to rectify and no room for a proxy.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
      Replying to @a_thing_to_do @petergodofsky @LiteralSheridan

      i think the risk is that every time you take a step like this as china you freak everyone out else around you even more and there's an uptick in opposition cohesion and concentration

      9:19 PM - 13 Apr 2021
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      • A gram of Gramsci
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        2. A gram of Gramsci‏ @a_thing_to_do Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot @petergodofsky @LiteralSheridan

          True but the thing that the CCP has consistently wanted for it's entirety is Taiwan and has been out of their reach and creates an 'incomplete China'. Taiwan would be the capstone to their return to power and an assertion of it too.

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