really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability
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it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but
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if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I’m thinking the CCP is mustering for a soft-blockade of Taiwan, asserting control over what ships/aircraft are allowed to make landfall, inspecting them for “contraband”, etc. Another ratchet in the pressure on Taiwan short of war so the west stays out.
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Replying to @random_scrub @eigenrobot
They can keep that up indefinitely and the west lacks the capability to force the issue for both political and military reasons. Their guess is that eventually an impoverished/demoralized Taiwan folds.
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Replying to @random_scrub
i don't think we let this happen. see chip fab issue
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Replying to @eigenrobot
Right, but if China selectively allows that stuff in/out, and sticks to blocking, say, troops/diplomats/materiel (alongside stuff nobody outsode Taiwan cares about) as an assertion of sovereignty, how likely is the US public to want to get involved?
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i think there are other actors here probably american public matters but im not sure they matter that much on a first pass
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