China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).
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Replying to @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot
Best case scenario, neither Russia nor China do anything (.mostly posturing for internal reasons) and it partly has to do with being unwilling to go first. Worst case scenario: someone does something and the US doesn't respond well or at all Wild card: they actively collude.
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Replying to @LiteralSheridan
do you think Russia's gonna move on Ukraine? if you can speak to this my impression was there weren't nearly enough troops RU side for an actual land-grabbing operation and that it was playing more like posturing but who knows
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
there are definitely enough troops at this point for a land grab, they've mobilized a preposterous fraction of their armed forces
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Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan
oh shit. escalation from the last claim i saw then. w e l p
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
I think it is reasonably plausible that russia would invade ukraine or even the baltic countries at the same time that china attacked taiwan; if they both plan to do that at any point, it makes sense for both to do it at the same time.
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
here's an interesting wrinkle I've never seen anyone else mention, so maybe it's bullshit, but I think the easiest invasion route for us into china might actually be through russia, specifically through vladivostok and then into the manchurian plain
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Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan
i think that's the traditional route for invading the middle kingdom isnt it?
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
You probably know that history better than I do, but from my eyes there are several advantages: -flatter terrain -sea of japan is easy to deny to chinese navy -NK/Russian coastlines might be poorly defended -too far for ballistic missiles aimed at taiwan to contribute
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come to think of it isn't this what the japanese did?pic.twitter.com/cxTc2ieTpf
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
yeah kinda topographically, north/northeast china has two big flat areas, the manchurian plain running from liaoning to heilongjiang and the north chinese plain containing beijing, tianjin, shanghai, etc. which has like the bulk of north china's population
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again though it's the naval aspects that are most promising to me, if you must invade china amphibiously, doing it by going through NK/Russia sea of japan coast allows you to isolate the whole area from naval threats
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