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eigenrobot

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome

      9 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp

      8 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Literally Sean Bannon‏ @LiteralSheridan Apr 13
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Literally Sean Bannon‏ @LiteralSheridan Apr 13
      Replying to @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot

      Best case scenario, neither Russia nor China do anything (.mostly posturing for internal reasons) and it partly has to do with being unwilling to go first. Worst case scenario: someone does something and the US doesn't respond well or at all Wild card: they actively collude.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
      Replying to @LiteralSheridan

      do you think Russia's gonna move on Ukraine? if you can speak to this my impression was there weren't nearly enough troops RU side for an actual land-grabbing operation and that it was playing more like posturing but who knows

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Steven Godofsky‏ @sgodofsk Apr 13
      Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan

      there are definitely enough troops at this point for a land grab, they've mobilized a preposterous fraction of their armed forces

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
      Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan

      oh shit. escalation from the last claim i saw then. w e l p

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Steven Godofsky‏ @sgodofsk Apr 13
      Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan

      I think it is reasonably plausible that russia would invade ukraine or even the baltic countries at the same time that china attacked taiwan; if they both plan to do that at any point, it makes sense for both to do it at the same time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
      Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan

      yes

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Steven Godofsky‏ @sgodofsk Apr 13
      Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan

      here's an interesting wrinkle I've never seen anyone else mention, so maybe it's bullshit, but I think the easiest invasion route for us into china might actually be through russia, specifically through vladivostok and then into the manchurian plain

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
      Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan

      i think that's the traditional route for invading the middle kingdom isnt it?

      8:06 PM - 13 Apr 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • mastaprincess #8 Steven Godofsky
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Steven Godofsky‏ @sgodofsk Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan

          You probably know that history better than I do, but from my eyes there are several advantages: -flatter terrain -sea of japan is easy to deny to chinese navy -NK/Russian coastlines might be poorly defended -too far for ballistic missiles aimed at taiwan to contribute

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
          Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan

          come to think of it isn't this what the japanese did?pic.twitter.com/cxTc2ieTpf

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies

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