it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but
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if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now
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seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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Replying to @eigenrobot
China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).
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Replying to @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot
Best case scenario, neither Russia nor China do anything (.mostly posturing for internal reasons) and it partly has to do with being unwilling to go first. Worst case scenario: someone does something and the US doesn't respond well or at all Wild card: they actively collude.
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Replying to @LiteralSheridan
do you think Russia's gonna move on Ukraine? if you can speak to this my impression was there weren't nearly enough troops RU side for an actual land-grabbing operation and that it was playing more like posturing but who knows
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
there are definitely enough troops at this point for a land grab, they've mobilized a preposterous fraction of their armed forces
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Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan
oh shit. escalation from the last claim i saw then. w e l p
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
I think it is reasonably plausible that russia would invade ukraine or even the baltic countries at the same time that china attacked taiwan; if they both plan to do that at any point, it makes sense for both to do it at the same time.
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
here's an interesting wrinkle I've never seen anyone else mention, so maybe it's bullshit, but I think the easiest invasion route for us into china might actually be through russia, specifically through vladivostok and then into the manchurian plain
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Replying to @sgodofsk @LiteralSheridan
i think that's the traditional route for invading the middle kingdom isnt it?
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