really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability
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it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but
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if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now
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seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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Replying to @eigenrobot
China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).
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Replying to @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot
Best case scenario, neither Russia nor China do anything (.mostly posturing for internal reasons) and it partly has to do with being unwilling to go first. Worst case scenario: someone does something and the US doesn't respond well or at all Wild card: they actively collude.
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Replying to @LiteralSheridan
do you think Russia's gonna move on Ukraine? if you can speak to this my impression was there weren't nearly enough troops RU side for an actual land-grabbing operation and that it was playing more like posturing but who knows
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
there are definitely enough troops at this point for a land grab, they've mobilized a preposterous fraction of their armed forces
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oh shit. escalation from the last claim i saw then. w e l p
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LiteralSheridan
I think it is reasonably plausible that russia would invade ukraine or even the baltic countries at the same time that china attacked taiwan; if they both plan to do that at any point, it makes sense for both to do it at the same time.
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