really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I will say that purely as a matter of general principal - not based on any specific knowledge of semiconductor fab - I am optimistic about the idea of high prices allowing people to radically compress manufacturing timescales.
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot
That, combined with substitution effects for the more marginal chip users.
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot
I guess more specifically the presumption that things need to be at the leading edge seems like it could easily give way.
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yeah well i hope there's time for an adjustment on our side
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