really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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longass subthread of thoughtful responses from
@_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Although I am still sorely ignorant on perspectives (but decidedly less so than typical American counterparts), there are a few factors you are missing: i. Although the Chinese public is extremely nationalistic, they also overwhelmingly do not want global military conflict.
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ii. Mainland Chinese public considers Taiwan a separate country (whereas they believe Hong Kong was and always will be a part of China). The scars of the conflict that divided the two not only still live on, but are being actively taught to the new generation.
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China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).
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Best case scenario, neither Russia nor China do anything (.mostly posturing for internal reasons) and it partly has to do with being unwilling to go first. Worst case scenario: someone does something and the US doesn't respond well or at all Wild card: they actively collude.
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wheeeeeee
End of conversation
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Interesting. I lean towards two, with a splash of 1. Americans just submitted to a voluntary economic collapse, and we're the "crazy liberty lovers". Why wouldn't China, even if their people starve? Communism has intentionally starved them before
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I would actually put my money on (ii). Here's why: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418567-bitcoin-china-launched-digital-yuan-and-will-change-everything … Quoting relevant bit: "The single most significant aspect of the digital yuan will be that it will allow CCP China to circumvent US and our allies’ sanctions."
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As the ever insightful
@balajis points out, the CCP has long since pivoted to a technocratic authority bent on pushing tech into the fabric of their society. All of this IMO, is in service of establishing the edge needed to weather a long winter. - Show replies
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