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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
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eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      eigenrobot Retweeted jonstokes.com

      really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …

      eigenrobot added,

      jonstokes.com @jonst0kes
      I wrote a long thing on this whole China/Taiwan/TSMC invasion thing, which I'll promote properly tomorrow but wanted to get it out, tonight: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan …
      Show this thread
      8 replies 11 retweets 108 likes
      Show this thread
    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability

      6 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but

      2 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now

      3 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
      Show this thread
    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome

      9 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp

      7:34 PM - 13 Apr 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 58 Likes
      • Dedicating Ruckus Not Bill Clinton (I Feel/Your Pain) zywiec James Bailey Terrence Fred Arnolfson Stochastic Epicurean Noumenon Kurisu 👺🦐
      8 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
        1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

          eigenrobot Retweeted

          longass subthread of thoughtful responses from @_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …

          eigenrobot added,

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          3 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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        2. pat.exe, phd‏ @ListenHereJimbo Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot @MorlockP

          Although I am still sorely ignorant on perspectives (but decidedly less so than typical American counterparts), there are a few factors you are missing: i. Although the Chinese public is extremely nationalistic, they also overwhelmingly do not want global military conflict.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. pat.exe, phd‏ @ListenHereJimbo Apr 13
          Replying to @ListenHereJimbo @eigenrobot @MorlockP

          ii. Mainland Chinese public considers Taiwan a separate country (whereas they believe Hong Kong was and always will be a part of China). The scars of the conflict that divided the two not only still live on, but are being actively taught to the new generation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Literally Sean Bannon‏ @LiteralSheridan Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          China will wait to invade Taiwan until they see how the US reacts to Russia invading Ukraine (or visa versa).

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Literally Sean Bannon‏ @LiteralSheridan Apr 13
          Replying to @LiteralSheridan @eigenrobot

          Best case scenario, neither Russia nor China do anything (.mostly posturing for internal reasons) and it partly has to do with being unwilling to go first. Worst case scenario: someone does something and the US doesn't respond well or at all Wild card: they actively collude.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
          Replying to @JoachimMorlin

          wheeeeeee

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. Life Is Brief‏ @recordofabeing Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          Interesting. I lean towards two, with a splash of 1. Americans just submitted to a voluntary economic collapse, and we're the "crazy liberty lovers". Why wouldn't China, even if their people starve? Communism has intentionally starved them before ☹️

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Sai Narayan ( 💔)‏ @nightmask3 Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          I would actually put my money on (ii). Here's why: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418567-bitcoin-china-launched-digital-yuan-and-will-change-everything … Quoting relevant bit: "The single most significant aspect of the digital yuan will be that it will allow CCP China to circumvent US and our allies’ sanctions."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Sai Narayan ( 💔)‏ @nightmask3 Apr 13
          Replying to @nightmask3 @eigenrobot

          As the ever insightful @balajis points out, the CCP has long since pivoted to a technocratic authority bent on pushing tech into the fabric of their society. All of this IMO, is in service of establishing the edge needed to weather a long winter.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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