really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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longass subthread of thoughtful responses from
@_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
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(iii) (a) the regime might also not survive acceding to Taiwanese independence
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yeah for example
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For iii) A) It all comes down to food and fuel and they've got to break the First Island Chain somewhere. B) If they think they're about to lose global trade, what's your story around why the CCP gets to keep ruling and reuniting China is a good one.
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Also see stuff like Belt and Road which makes exactly zero economic sense and if you think you're going to need a land connection to Iranian oil real soon now...
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No one has done anything about Russia annexing neighboring territories. China probably believes that they’ll get the same disapproving looks with no teeth.
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regrettably no one cares about ukraine
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I think it's (i) and unfortunately, they're probably correct. They've been quite adept at playing our corporations like a fiddle.
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corporations are one thing but there's a looooot of pressure from other areas
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