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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      eigenrobot Retweeted jonstokes.com

      really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …

      eigenrobot added,

      jonstokes.com @jonst0kes
      I wrote a long thing on this whole China/Taiwan/TSMC invasion thing, which I'll promote properly tomorrow but wanted to get it out, tonight: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan …
      Show this thread
      8 replies 11 retweets 108 likes
      Show this thread
    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability

      6 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but

      2 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now

      3 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
      Show this thread
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

      seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome

      7:32 PM - 13 Apr 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 63 Likes
      • Roberto Dedicating Ruckus mastaprincess Not Bill Clinton (I Feel/Your Pain) zywiec James Bailey Fred Arnolfson Stochastic Epicurean Kurisu 👺🦐
      9 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

          the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp

          8 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
          Show this thread
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13

          eigenrobot Retweeted

          longass subthread of thoughtful responses from @_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …

          eigenrobot added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          3 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          (iii) (a) the regime might also not survive acceding to Taiwanese independence

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
          Replying to @AlexGodofsky

          yeah for example

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Look up Knuffelberen‏ @poiThePoi Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          For iii) A) It all comes down to food and fuel and they've got to break the First Island Chain somewhere. B) If they think they're about to lose global trade, what's your story around why the CCP gets to keep ruling and reuniting China is a good one.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Look up Knuffelberen‏ @poiThePoi Apr 13
          Replying to @poiThePoi @eigenrobot

          Also see stuff like Belt and Road which makes exactly zero economic sense and if you think you're going to need a land connection to Iranian oil real soon now...

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Tetrao "Tidewater" Urogallus, PhD‏ @g_sharp_major Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          No one has done anything about Russia annexing neighboring territories. China probably believes that they’ll get the same disapproving looks with no teeth.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
          Replying to @AlfredDolan1

          regrettably no one cares about ukraine

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Abraham Ash (Neophyte Dunehead)‏ @Historycourses Apr 13
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          I think it's (i) and unfortunately, they're probably correct. They've been quite adept at playing our corporations like a fiddle.

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 13
          Replying to @Historycourses

          corporations are one thing but there's a looooot of pressure from other areas

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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