really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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longass subthread of thoughtful responses from
@_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
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I’m thinking the CCP is mustering for a soft-blockade of Taiwan, asserting control over what ships/aircraft are allowed to make landfall, inspecting them for “contraband”, etc. Another ratchet in the pressure on Taiwan short of war so the west stays out.
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They can keep that up indefinitely and the west lacks the capability to force the issue for both political and military reasons. Their guess is that eventually an impoverished/demoralized Taiwan folds.
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