really helpful piece by @jonst0kes about the chip fab situation and Taiwan
i have been thinking that the military aspect of a Taiwan invasion whether successful or unsuccessful is much less important than the downstream non-military impacts and this is reinforcing that beliefhttps://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1382145837384499200 …
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it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but
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if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now
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seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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longass subthread of thoughtful responses from
@_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
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I will say that purely as a matter of general principal - not based on any specific knowledge of semiconductor fab - I am optimistic about the idea of high prices allowing people to radically compress manufacturing timescales.
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That, combined with substitution effects for the more marginal chip users.
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Does the US public have the will to go to hot war with China over Taiwan? I think not. Also, as long as Russia is on board, they control the fuel valve to Europe and China can stop construction on the Tibetan dam to appease India. Japan, SK, etc not strong enough to resist.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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