questions coming to mind 1. how does the US respond economically to an invasion, successful or not 2. how does the rest of the world respond economically 3. what are major shifts in diplomatic configuration, probably affecting (1-2) 4. how does this affect china's stability
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it _feels_ likely to me that china invading taiwan freaks a lot of people out and there's a massive splintering of the global trade order that isolates china and crushes the global economy for a decade, in china most of all low confidence bet but
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if something like that were to happen it seems unlikely that the CCP-led state would survive which leads to the question of what the hell is the CCP doing now
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seems like either (i) CCP doesnt think the rest of the world would substantially react to (eg) a seizure of taiwan; (ii) they think they would weather economic collapse just fine; (iii) there are internal factors pushing belligerence in spite of a very bad long term outcome
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the belief in (i) seems plausible if you look at their diplomatic performance lately but it seems like (iii) is the usual cause of really stupid wars so i guess my money is there welp
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longass subthread of thoughtful responses from
@_mengde_ https://twitter.com/_mengde_/status/1382163693933367304 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
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Thinking it's time to give up on that 5900x and grab a 5800x to build the new desktop juuuuuust in case.
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He's absolutely right that it would be a disaster for China, & probably the world as well. I think it would probably end with the PRC ceasing to exist. If they were smart, they'd simply let Taiwan go. But they seem determined not to do this.
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Go read or watch basically anything by Zeihan. In particular, his little aside about the Imperial Era. He's been on the same kick for a decade now and it's a good kick.
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