so historically you could resolve disputes between states with a conventional war. that was fairly effective one way or another but nukes have fucked that up for major powers. very difficult to go to war with a nuclear power if you are a nuclear power too. risky
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so maybe what you do is more like a cold war. basically every nuclear power war going forward is gonna be a cold war in fact. how do you win a cold war. well you just wait until the enemy regime collapses. maybe hurry it along. certainly contain it.
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so maybe one should expect future conflict to be basically a matter of regimes undermining each other using information warfare and small attacks physical or otherwise via proxies to try and get their opponent to collapse without firing a shot b
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if this is how things play out with eg the us and china you get to test the interesting question of how socially robust a *relatively* open information ecosystem is during an information war, compared to a relatively closed one
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your response might be of course a closed ecosystem is more resilient because it can throttle information flows but im skeptical of this because theyre relatively vulnerable to preference cascades
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like how many us allied regimes have been replaced with ccp allies vs how many color revolutions have been kicked off since 2008
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eigenrobot Retweeted David Holz
relatedly i sort of suspect the fact that most chinese upper class ppl seem to come to the us for school is both a sign of us dominance culturally and a major vulnerability for chinahttps://twitter.com/DavidSHolz/status/1378976326581809155?s=19 …
eigenrobot added,
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i have no idea why china under xi permits this. it seems nuts.
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Replying to @eigenrobot
an issue we’ve seen is that they come here, go back and become the absolutely most fanatical CCP cadres after their experience in America. maybe we might be part of the problem lol
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Replying to @BlackGuelph @eigenrobot
our long term outlook was always hoping that we’d create a class of liberalized people who would want the same freedoms they had in America. And we just never counted on them being like “nah, we’re good.”
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and yet they keep sending people to the us
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Replying to @eigenrobot
And I think they will continue to as long as US universities continue to top the prestige charts. They are definitely getting a lot out of us and we aren’t sending back anyone will democracy in mind it seems like.
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