so historically you could resolve disputes between states with a conventional war. that was fairly effective one way or another but nukes have fucked that up for major powers. very difficult to go to war with a nuclear power if you are a nuclear power too. risky
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so maybe what you do is more like a cold war. basically every nuclear power war going forward is gonna be a cold war in fact. how do you win a cold war. well you just wait until the enemy regime collapses. maybe hurry it along. certainly contain it.
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so maybe one should expect future conflict to be basically a matter of regimes undermining each other using information warfare and small attacks physical or otherwise via proxies to try and get their opponent to collapse without firing a shot b
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if this is how things play out with eg the us and china you get to test the interesting question of how socially robust a *relatively* open information ecosystem is during an information war, compared to a relatively closed one
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your response might be of course a closed ecosystem is more resilient because it can throttle information flows but im skeptical of this because theyre relatively vulnerable to preference cascades
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like how many us allied regimes have been replaced with ccp allies vs how many color revolutions have been kicked off since 2008
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Replying to @eigenrobot
One issue with the containment doctrine when applied to an US-China great powers competition is unlike during the Cold War, it would be difficult to get other countries to completely cut off trade and investment with China this time around.
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Replying to @JrThatcher
ye maybe moving slowly in that direction and chinas approaching middle income trap territory
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Replying to @eigenrobot
1) Def here for a discussing on China’s middle income trap situation lol 2) Sometimes I think the fact that containment wasn’t just a negative doctrine gets lost in the discussion, so there was a forward-looking economic component like the Marshall plan incorporated into it too
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Replying to @JrThatcher @eigenrobot
So in the context of an US-China great powers competition, that would look something like offering an alternative to China’s BRI for example.
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yeah although I think americas alternative is better known as "the international trade and finance system and also freedom of the seas guaranteed by the us navy" be very difficult to build an alternative seems like
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