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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 5

      so historically you could resolve disputes between states with a conventional war. that was fairly effective one way or another but nukes have fucked that up for major powers. very difficult to go to war with a nuclear power if you are a nuclear power too. risky

      15 replies 9 retweets 156 likes
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    2. QC‏ @QiaochuYuan Apr 5
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      so nukes have suppressed small wars at the expense of potentially increasing the risk of large wars? is this ~fragility~

      5 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Apr 5
      Replying to @QiaochuYuan

      i think they may have suppressed both practically speaking. with some greater possibility of utterly catastrophic war although that seems less likely since 89 or so

      12:27 AM - 5 Apr 2021
      • 24 Likes
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      4 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
        1. father of the year‏ @ITBeHa Apr 5
          Replying to @eigenrobot @QiaochuYuan

          SRE voice in my head says it has become more likely because people see it as less likely.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. entirelyuseless‏ @entirelyuseles Apr 5
          Replying to @eigenrobot @QiaochuYuan

          https://cameronharwick.com/blog/dont-worry-about-nuclear-war/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Michael Kleyn‏ @KleynMichael Apr 5
          Replying to @eigenrobot @QiaochuYuan

          I’m not sure. If China doesn’t end up just bluffing this imminent attack on Taiwan, and if the US gets involved – then maybe we will see both countries waging war on foreign soil. Like designating an arena where it’s ok for major powers to use conventional warfare w/o nukes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Michael Kleyn‏ @KleynMichael Apr 5
          Replying to @KleynMichael @eigenrobot @QiaochuYuan

          Because ultimately it’s the image of superiority that matters in Chinas expansion. A defeat of US forces in an arena like Taiwan could be a devastating blow to our Goliath stature.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. bdunbar‏ @bdunbar Apr 5
          Replying to @eigenrobot @QiaochuYuan

          Counter point: accidental nuclear war may be *more* likely now, than during the Cold War. Then: leadership is aware of the stakes, thinks about it, everyone regularly holds war games to work through these options. A 2:00 am call from NORAD is just another day at the office.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. bdunbar‏ @bdunbar Apr 5
          Replying to @bdunbar @eigenrobot @QiaochuYuan

          Now: I'm not sure they think about this stuff anymore. If my worries in this regard are valid, a 2:00 am call from NORAD will be a bolt from the blue. They will have no background for handling it. Mistakes will be made.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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