so historically you could resolve disputes between states with a conventional war. that was fairly effective one way or another but nukes have fucked that up for major powers. very difficult to go to war with a nuclear power if you are a nuclear power too. risky
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SRE voice in my head says it has become more likely because people see it as less likely.
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I’m not sure. If China doesn’t end up just bluffing this imminent attack on Taiwan, and if the US gets involved – then maybe we will see both countries waging war on foreign soil. Like designating an arena where it’s ok for major powers to use conventional warfare w/o nukes.
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Because ultimately it’s the image of superiority that matters in Chinas expansion. A defeat of US forces in an arena like Taiwan could be a devastating blow to our Goliath stature.
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Counter point: accidental nuclear war may be *more* likely now, than during the Cold War. Then: leadership is aware of the stakes, thinks about it, everyone regularly holds war games to work through these options. A 2:00 am call from NORAD is just another day at the office.
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Now: I'm not sure they think about this stuff anymore. If my worries in this regard are valid, a 2:00 am call from NORAD will be a bolt from the blue. They will have no background for handling it. Mistakes will be made.
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