so maybe what you do is more like a cold war. basically every nuclear power war going forward is gonna be a cold war in fact. how do you win a cold war. well you just wait until the enemy regime collapses. maybe hurry it along. certainly contain it.
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so maybe one should expect future conflict to be basically a matter of regimes undermining each other using information warfare and small attacks physical or otherwise via proxies to try and get their opponent to collapse without firing a shot b
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if this is how things play out with eg the us and china you get to test the interesting question of how socially robust a *relatively* open information ecosystem is during an information war, compared to a relatively closed one
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your response might be of course a closed ecosystem is more resilient because it can throttle information flows but im skeptical of this because theyre relatively vulnerable to preference cascades
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like how many us allied regimes have been replaced with ccp allies vs how many color revolutions have been kicked off since 2008
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relatedly i sort of suspect the fact that most chinese upper class ppl seem to come to the us for school is both a sign of us dominance culturally and a major vulnerability for chinahttps://twitter.com/DavidSHolz/status/1378976326581809155?s=19 …
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i have no idea why china under xi permits this. it seems nuts.
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yeah massive outflows of upper class chinese money to us real estate seems instructive wonder how thats going lately. interesting metric to track even if I dont understand all the implications https://twitter.com/pegobry/status/1378978110822027264?s=19 …
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Welcome to 1952 cold war logic
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so nukes have suppressed small wars at the expense of potentially increasing the risk of large wars? is this ~fragility~
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i think they may have suppressed both practically speaking. with some greater possibility of utterly catastrophic war although that seems less likely since 89 or so
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