been wondering about this. how things would play out if someone tried a repeat of lockdown. i mean to be clear like. casually wondering. hardly thinking, certainly not deeply https://t.co/ejN5i74HgG
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AFAICT, corners of America did 2.5 real lockdowns. SF - Worked, effective LA - Ignored, winter wave NYC (The 0.5) - Wasn't a France, was pretty effective.... at levels that looked like the country minus herd.
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Disclaimer: The metric of an effective lockdown is not the integral of the case curve (You don't turn off that hard until you're really in a bad spot), it's whether 1-2 weeks later you can cut yourself on the peak of the curve.
End of conversation
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