seems likely correct although taiwan could just get ugly fast crimea seems more like a model of how things play out, more and more often. or armenia-azerbaijan but who knows!https://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1375708524425142273 …
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Dude. We live in a world where US media shows the 9-dash line on broadcasts for the US market. Exactly how negative do you think public opinion on China is going to be allowed to get?
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Yeah the chip fabs are a big deal. Seems like everyone is figuring this out. Intel just announced 2 7nm fabs in AZ, TSMC putting 5nm in AZ and Samsung 5nm or 3nm in Austin. All announced in last couple of months. Big push here. Plan to abandon Taiwan by 2025?
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all it would take is for one freedom of navigation run to go badly
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60% is done in the US but you’re right the margin will still be crippling to the point it would be a strategic resource
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It's pretty simple really; a USN frigate gets close to the hostilities, purely to observe of course, and takes Chinese fire. Several of our sailors get killed, casual belli, simple as.
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Big bad communism is tried and true. Perhaps they even figure out how to paint the authoritarian aspect more brightly/clearly/distinctly? Then when antifa starts rioting to prevent the war, most/many holdouts will buy into it
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See, I agree, cus as a jaded anarchist that has come to loathe Reagan, I can watch this video and feel like jumping out of a plane with a flag parachute. It passes, but I get it. Folks crave the sort of meaning this promises. https://youtu.be/JDVT-8tUfiE
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I think a decent chunk of the American public will actually care about the PRC invading Taiwan, but I don't know if it's the most important chunk. And even then, it's going to get Covington scissor'd quickly where party identification drives opinion for most of the pop.
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I can see some weird crossovers (eg R2P crowd breaking from the blue side to support Taiwan, WigNats breaking from the red side to support the PRC), but I can also already basically write the talking points for how the tribes will frame the issue
End of conversation
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