Are prime heavy users Amazon heavy buyers or overall heavy buyers? The former means that Prime does not matter much, the latter that they are grabbing the best costumers from Wall Mart/Shopify. Since Amazon screw upper middle class, I feel like a big part is the latter.
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we're gonna need two earths to accurately estimate the effects of prime. anything else is masturbation and by that i mean economics
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same with climb at change but you dont have to take my word for it (i mean, you literally dont have to take anyone's word in science because that's kind of "its deal")
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Why is it tricky though? Just look at the actual lift from year to year of customers who opt into prime. If you have access to amazon's data
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It's tricky to disentangle the causality because people may choose to opt into Prime *because* they noticed they're already making many purchases, or they expect to make more purchases than they'd made in the past
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Nothing you can’t solve with a linear regression Omitted variable bias? Linear regression. Heteroskedasticity? Linear regression. Synthetic DiD? Linear regression.
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