i dont think its internally coherent
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Depends on the nature of the collapse. I could sketch out 2030s or 2040s collapses where the weird Western financial bolthole of East Asia collapsing doesn't matter that much to Where All The World's Manufacturing Happens.
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Example: 2035. 1990-2020 trends in global manufacturing accelerated, so China's the location of 70% of global manufacturing, increasingly high tech in value powered by copious amounts of AI, cheap nuclear power, and centrality in East Asian value chains.
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