should probably identify some things that I feel are plausible risks right now i dont have any idea how large these risks are going to focus on first order risks because most of them have tons of knock-on effectshttps://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1348146075014610944 …
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1. per a now-deleted thread, anything happening to supreme court justices
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2. right wingers doing something really stupid
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3. democrats massively overreaching and causing a hostile rupture with establishment republicans
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4. Congressional Republicans doing something really stupid as a body. I specifically mean House republicans, I think it is unlikely the Senators will be stupid
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just generally the short term risk is anything that results in dramatic political escalation country is a tinderbox after Wednesday trump getting media purged is very bad for the medium to long term but i am personally most worried about the next month
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(2) and (3) seem like the most likely things to happen. i have more trust in the bulk of the senate and the biden admin to keep their heads. anything with the court is a tail risk. house members seem relatively powerless in practice.
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some stabilizing factors: 1. the business establishment is acting independently and forcefully to exert political pressure for stability. this is potentially destabilizing in the longer term but predominantly helpful in the short term
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2. the supreme court will probably perform admirably if needed, and will probably given the current makeup at least mitigate if not wholly overturn some of the excesses of democrats that are likely to ensue. . . . eventually
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