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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      eigenrobot Retweeted PoliMath

      should probably identify some things that I feel are plausible risks right now i dont have any idea how large these risks are going to focus on first order risks because most of them have tons of knock-on effectshttps://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1348146075014610944 …

      eigenrobot added,

      PoliMath @politicalmath
      I mean... all my friends who prepared for a global pandemic and were stockpiling masks in February are freaking out about this Trump ban thing so it seems safe to ignore them since they are never right about anything.
      4 replies 6 retweets 113 likes
      Show this thread
    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      1. per a now-deleted thread, anything happening to supreme court justices

      1 reply 1 retweet 58 likes
      Show this thread
    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      2. right wingers doing something really stupid

      2 replies 1 retweet 58 likes
      Show this thread
    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      3. democrats massively overreaching and causing a hostile rupture with establishment republicans

      4 replies 1 retweet 61 likes
      Show this thread
    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      4. Congressional Republicans doing something really stupid as a body. I specifically mean House republicans, I think it is unlikely the Senators will be stupid

      3 replies 1 retweet 53 likes
      Show this thread
    6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      just generally the short term risk is anything that results in dramatic political escalation country is a tinderbox after Wednesday trump getting media purged is very bad for the medium to long term but i am personally most worried about the next month

      3 replies 3 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
    7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      (2) and (3) seem like the most likely things to happen. i have more trust in the bulk of the senate and the biden admin to keep their heads. anything with the court is a tail risk. house members seem relatively powerless in practice.

      7 replies 0 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
    8. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      some stabilizing factors: 1. the business establishment is acting independently and forcefully to exert political pressure for stability. this is potentially destabilizing in the longer term but predominantly helpful in the short term

      1 reply 0 retweets 51 likes
      Show this thread
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

      2. the supreme court will probably perform admirably if needed, and will probably given the current makeup at least mitigate if not wholly overturn some of the excesses of democrats that are likely to ensue. . . . eventually

      2:06 AM - 10 Jan 2021
      • 49 Likes
      • codingAlong Ian Miller american biologist Fifty, Foul, A Sly Drunk Kieroshark zywiec flat earth enthusiast
      1 reply 0 retweets 49 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

          3. a significant portion of the republican establishment just fucking hates trump, and deeply resents being driven out of the capitol by a mob

          1 reply 0 retweets 44 likes
          Show this thread
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

          continuing this thought and making it explicit, this probably reduces their sense of loyal in some sense to their party and redirects it toward institutions i am genuinely grateful for mcconnell and pence holding the offices they do

          2 replies 1 retweet 41 likes
          Show this thread
        4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

          4. none of the republican state legislatures or governors (of which I believe they are the majority) did anything obviously stupid on Wednesday, and they seem unlikely to do so

          1 reply 0 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

          5. the military doesnt want any part of this shit and its officers especially at the higher ranks seem to hate trump this is important because in spite of mixed views in lower ranks and among the enlisted it is very difficult to coordinate below the colonelcy

          2 replies 0 retweets 50 likes
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        6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

          idk this is where my head is. please do not take this as gospel, God knows things are hard to predict even in good times and I am a humble speculator overall i think we are likely to muddle through im gonna lose again in AV and go to bed gn, pls remember to maintain sangfroid

          3 replies 1 retweet 57 likes
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        7. End of conversation
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        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jan 10

          pic.twitter.com/ZGqeiduOk1

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation

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