should probably identify some things that I feel are plausible risks right now i dont have any idea how large these risks are going to focus on first order risks because most of them have tons of knock-on effectshttps://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1348146075014610944 …
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1. per a now-deleted thread, anything happening to supreme court justices
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2. right wingers doing something really stupid
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3. democrats massively overreaching and causing a hostile rupture with establishment republicans
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4. Congressional Republicans doing something really stupid as a body. I specifically mean House republicans, I think it is unlikely the Senators will be stupid
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just generally the short term risk is anything that results in dramatic political escalation country is a tinderbox after Wednesday trump getting media purged is very bad for the medium to long term but i am personally most worried about the next month
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(2) and (3) seem like the most likely things to happen. i have more trust in the bulk of the senate and the biden admin to keep their heads. anything with the court is a tail risk. house members seem relatively powerless in practice.
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Replying to @eigenrobot
2) & 4) is arguably happening (that’s why the US is where it is right now) and 3) might come soon to a Congress near you. Or in the words of Adam:pic.twitter.com/Ue6pRaluTX
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what's happening right now is not what I mean by stupid
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