listening to @robertwrighter and @RichardHanania talk about civil war right now
deeply mixed feelings about it
think hanania is right that civil war talk in the us is basically fundraising kayfabe. also having my priors confirmed that polisci is terrible
https://bloggingheads.tv/videos/60697
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there are apparently two main schools of thought about civil war prediction some people emphasize "grievance" ie "civil wars happen because some cohesive group thinks theyre getting screwed" the other emphasizes a weak government, hananian favors this school
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he does a nice job of mentioning that things are polycausal which is nice but good god the empirical studies underlying this i dont have to read them, i just no what they look like and they are terrible he hints that the estimated parameters vary wildly, quelle suprise
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go ahead though tell me how your going to code up grievanceness measure how aggrieved different cultural groups are in some manner thats comparable across continents imagine this feature set and now feed in like 60 civil wars that have happened since the start of the dataset
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he at one point calls this Big Data
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anyway he runs a consultancy
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i want to emphasize that i like him personally and he seems to think clearly about lots of things i just wish he had the ability to earn a living honestly
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hes simultaneously a china dove and a china fatalist and a china optimist and the delivery and contents of his arguments makes me less confident in the gestalt of these positions i think he thinks most clearly about areas in which he is not an expert which is very interesting
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eigenrobot Retweeted Evil (Political) Scientist
a political scientist I trust on the matter heh gratifying threadhttps://twitter.com/knrd_z/status/1339058225304498179?s=19 …
eigenrobot added,
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