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eigenrobot's profile
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eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

      listening to @robertwrighter and @RichardHanania talk about civil war right now deeply mixed feelings about it think hanania is right that civil war talk in the us is basically fundraising kayfabe. also having my priors confirmed that polisci is terrible https://bloggingheads.tv/videos/60697 

      6 replies 1 retweet 57 likes
      Show this thread
    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

      there are apparently two main schools of thought about civil war prediction some people emphasize "grievance" ie "civil wars happen because some cohesive group thinks theyre getting screwed" the other emphasizes a weak government, hananian favors this school

      3 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
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      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

      he does a nice job of mentioning that things are polycausal which is nice but good god the empirical studies underlying this i dont have to read them, i just no what they look like and they are terrible he hints that the estimated parameters vary wildly, quelle suprise

      5:48 PM - 15 Dec 2020
      • 28 Likes
      • Marc “Except You, You're All Right” Whipple Sirsfurther Pirkka-Joose Sempé 27 5'3'' Z Golgi the Prince 👑 eliza Evil (Political) Scientist Critter Murky Consequences
      1 reply 0 retweets 28 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

          go ahead though tell me how your going to code up grievanceness measure how aggrieved different cultural groups are in some manner thats comparable across continents imagine this feature set and now feed in like 60 civil wars that have happened since the start of the dataset

          2 replies 2 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

          he at one point calls this Big Data

          2 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

          anyway he runs a consultancy

          2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
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        5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

          i want to emphasize that i like him personally and he seems to think clearly about lots of things i just wish he had the ability to earn a living honestly

          1 reply 0 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

          hes simultaneously a china dove and a china fatalist and a china optimist and the delivery and contents of his arguments makes me less confident in the gestalt of these positions i think he thinks most clearly about areas in which he is not an expert which is very interesting

          3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
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        7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 15 Dec 2020

          eigenrobot Retweeted Evil (Political) Scientist

          a political scientist I trust on the matter heh gratifying threadhttps://twitter.com/knrd_z/status/1339058225304498179?s=19 …

          eigenrobot added,

          Evil (Political) Scientist @knrd_z
          Replying to @eigenrobot @robertwrighter @RichardHanania
          His talk is good but damn is this research cursed. All the research on "grievance" versus "opportunity" is trash and has been consistently shown to be trash --- all of it. Most of it is cross-national panel regressions where, shock and surprise, GDP is inversely related to war.
          0 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation

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