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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    4. Jess Riedel‏ @Jess_Riedel 19 Nov 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      The exact cause for flu seasonality is debated. Re: covid, we have a very plausible (not proven) explanation: colder temps everywhere in N. Hemisphere means longer ex vivo viral survival and more indoor gatherings. What's left to explain?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 19 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Jess_Riedel

      its pretty massively overdetermined and caseloads dont obviously map onto temperature egpic.twitter.com/1iKlZsftdq

      6:44 AM - 19 Nov 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Watson Ladd‏ @WatsonLadd 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @Jess_Riedel

          Darkness. Flu season is the wet season in some parts of the world because people congregate in doors.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @WatsonLadd @eigenrobot @Jess_Riedel

          Spotted Toad Retweeted Spotted Toad

          this paper seems to suggest this is actually typical of respiratory viruses- i think Europe vs US latitude and timing of outbreaks supports this suppositionhttps://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/1325893700493447169 …

          Spotted Toad added,

          Spotted Toad @toad_spotted
          Seasonality is *the* dominant factor in respiratory viruses and related deaths. This discussion of influenza seasonality D-regulation is fascinating,suggests these patterns have deep physiological causes that go beyond transmission being easier inside. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2279112/ …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Jess Riedel‏ @Jess_Riedel 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          Degree of seasonality is determined more by the temporal change in temp, not the absolute temp. Regardless, we don't expect a single cause tracking data perfectly, just a sufficient explanation for general rise at same time. Not sure what you mean by "overdetermined".

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Jess_Riedel

          overdetermined => using the list of all plausible mechanisms in replies I believe we have managed to explain 2948% of the variation in infections over time

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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