I’ve flipped a quarter 38 times and at no point has heads been lower than 50% or higher than 50%. Tails can win but don’t get too excited about it.
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Do you think that probability should be lower?
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yes and no but also mostly this is kind of just inadvertently shitting on his own model imo
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Am I too naive to think he's actually a good guy whose models are wrong
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i think his heart is mostly in the right place
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You're welcome to unfollow him! Don't know why folks are complaining about a poll aggregator talking about his poll aggregations.
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his defense is wrongheaded
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Oh no are you a n8 h8r too?
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no im a silver neutral but i think that tweet is dumb
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Imagine running an election model 38 times and having the odds window within .5% every time
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