so this is fun the pollers try to get around the shy trump voter by asking them who they think their friends or family will vote for but suppose people are shy about trump their friends or family--second order preference falsification! https://t.co/QD2QqPpvKk
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Replying to @eigenrobot
simplest answer is "trump voters are less likely to enjoy doing homework for some random guy calling them", no shyness necessary
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Replying to @fire__exit @eigenrobot
it's stupid to think people of all political preferences UNIFORMLY prefer answering phone surveys, who actually thinks this
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Replying to @fire__exit @eigenrobot
this is what weighting is supposed to correct for. last time they misweighted education, but have fixed it. this time I worry so much has happened that they're fighting the previous war with their weighting methods, so to speak.
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Yes, misweighted by education and also likely voters. Trump did bring out people who had only spottily voted before so pollsters were skeptical they would actually turn out.
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Replying to @AndrewCutler13 @metapotat and
haven't looked into shy trump theory too much but a) the polls weren't that far off in 2016 (per Enten's pre-election piece) so no need for a special reason b) the error is already well explained by likely voter weightspic.twitter.com/JTIZRD3c8g
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Replying to @AndrewCutler13 @metapotat and
the nate defender has logged on
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surely the weights are correct now that weve returned to a stable state of affairs in this country
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