so why has this spread not been bid down somehow seems suspic.twitter.com/zcdbfqDrjI
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i dont see any explicit bets about terrorism or assassination or even boring causes of death so overall I have to say this site lacks the courage of its convinctions
naturally robin did not have this problemhttps://twitter.com/prerationalist/status/1311887384473202689?s=19 …
Day to day these markets are equally full of shit as any other gambling table and mostly follow trend in polls or react to media
What kind of odds do you think I can get on the following prop 1. Biden wins electoral and popular vote 2. Biden dies on Christmas day 3. Trump demands do-over election within 10 days of the New Year, creating chaos 4. Kamala Harris is President of the US on Feb 1.=
uh what kind of odds you want
this @robinhanson paper is old enough to vote and describes a beautiful mechanism that prevents this (market probabilities always sum to 1) and especially improves conditional bets
but no prediction markets use it
http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/mktscore.pdf …
except @Truthcoin / hivemind, but I think it is still waiting on BTC consensus changes (?)
INSIDER TRADING ON TRUMP GETTING COVID!!!1 RREEEEEE
So that Pence number might move...
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