contrary take on the long haul, interesting, I'm mixed on thishttps://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1306283325368262656?s=19 …
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eigenrobot Retweeted
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Replying to @eigenrobot
The charitable version is that China's managed to avoid the last 3 collapses by printing another $20 Trillion in what will someday be realized as increasingly funny money. And that reckoning hasn't happened yet, but when it does... People start wars over less.
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Replying to @poiThePoi @eigenrobot
China printed a ton of money and spent it on infrastructure and a high tech industrial base, America printed a ton of money to make big line go up. Only one of these two things will remain regardless of what happens to the currency that financed it.
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Replying to @interpretantion @eigenrobot
And now you have to _maintain_ the drastically over-built infrastructure on the *lowest* consumer demand to investment ratio in the world. Quite possibly in history. This is called Japan. Or Enron.
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Replying to @poiThePoi @eigenrobot
Oh I have some bad news for you about maintaining infrastructure
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Still this is a good point I didn't think about enough, that everything materially substantial has long-term overhead
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Replying to @interpretantion @eigenrobot
Building a train line is paid for by selling tickets. And if you've explicitly decided not to sell tickets... Also bike shares; How many rides are they actually getting out of these bikes? https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/03/bike-share-oversupply-in-china-huge-piles-of-abandoned-and-broken-bicycles/556268/ …
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Replying to @poiThePoi @eigenrobot
The benefits of their high-speed trains go beyond monetary revenue. The entire country is connected and it's now easier for those connected regions to economically grow in the long run.
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Replying to @interpretantion @eigenrobot
Which they're not doing, given that they add $4 in debt for every $1 in economic activity at this point and the size of their debt ball is 2000% of 2000. Their economy is 450% the size of 2000 as well, but... really?
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I am again asking everyone to read Hayek (1945) 
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Replying to @eigenrobot @poiThePoi
Been there done that but told myself I'd do it again so I can properly steelman certain people.
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