stray intrusive thought 'average white doctor kills black babies at triple rate of black doctors' factoid a statistical error. average white doctor kills black babies at same rate. Racist Georg who delivers in a cave and eats over 10,000 each day, is an outlier adn should not h
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generally when a model produces fantastical results you should feel good about discarding the model. and this is absolute insanity there are a million things that can go wrong in this kind of estimation and the approach used by the authors handles like . . . five of them
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this kind of cockup is the *norm* in reduced form microeconometrics it is remarkable only for being wildly unreasonable, and nevertheless making it through a paper-thin review process (by people whos careers are built on the same methods) because it produced the Correct result
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the authors are careful to run through a series of apotropaic tests to ensure that a few well-understood issues did not obtain in their model its thorough, people myself included spend years learning these Rituals its akin to making sure submarine screen doors are up to code
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if you complete the Ceremony it is extremely unlikely that anyone will bother observing that your results are absolutely cockamamie its econometrics-by-recipe "order the data in such a way, run all the standard tests, publish, gib tenure" no iota of reflection necessary
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This paper is so egregious that it knocked me awake If they'd claimed /using the same methods/ like "5% increase in mortality" I would have slept through it But--those methods would have been equally bad /had they produced a reasonable result/!
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I want to emphasize that in closing Everything is fucked and you don't usually see it because it's not egregious enough to break the surface but everything in social science is fucked. Don't succumb to Gell-Mann Amnesia just stop reading empirical papers. Ed Prescott was right.pic.twitter.com/g20u9dGCXE
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Special thanks to
@RRHDr,@Fixed_Effects,@aaronsojourner &@LauraHuangLA for the object lesson And to@PNASNews, which my old undergrad advisor helpfully explained stands for "Prints Nearly Any Shit" You should all be embarrassed but I bet you won't be6 replies 2 retweets 91 likesShow this thread -
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Replying to @realchrisrufo @eigenrobot and
Seriously? Did you even read the actual article (the academic article, not provocation-infused articles from CNN and the such) before you egg this person on with your “Preach!”
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eigenrobot Retweeted eigenrobot
figures and methods are in the thread it's all anyone readshttps://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1295939140534460416?s=19 …
eigenrobot added,
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Replying to @eigenrobot @LauraHuangLA and
if you have any substantial rejoinders id be glad to entertain them incidentally but judging by your cv im guessing you werent methods lead
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