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eigenrobot's profile
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 17 Aug 2020

      California: 1. End coal, don't replace with nuclear. Power capacity plummets 2. Buy from neighbors to cover spikes. Neighbors use coal for this 3. Neighbors stop selling during their own spikes-->blackouts in CA 4. "Neighbors must end their coal use"http://archive.is/MZ8A2 

      27 replies 118 retweets 577 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pumpkin-Spice Adjunction‏ @interpretantion 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      How does California survive? It's like the entire state is devoted to having as little common sense as humanly possible

      3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
    3. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @interpretantion @eigenrobot

      Eh, the original tweet is largely wrong. The biggest *dispatchable* imports to CA are hydro.https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/07/03/california-breakdown-of-electricity-imports-upholds-statess-clean-reputation/ …

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
    4. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Mihoda @interpretantion @eigenrobot

      Imported coal accounts for about 4% of CA power which is far below the average for the states.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    5. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Mihoda @interpretantion @eigenrobot

      *hydro and gas are the two big dispatchable imports... gas largely goes without saying. The import fraction of gas is on the same orders as the domestic one.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    6. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Mihoda @interpretantion @eigenrobot

      The cause for rolling blackouts is far simpler and less conspiratorial: No one is interested in gold plating the electrical system to meet a high-demand event that occurs only for 20-40 hrs every 10 years.

      1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
    7. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Mihoda @interpretantion @eigenrobot

      ...if there is some plant or line necessary to meet demand for just 10 hrs, then in must amortize its cost over those ten hours. Translation: it is obscenely expensive to meet this demand. Think 100x the normal hourly cost.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Mihoda @interpretantion

      Hurm I am skeptical of this explanation Is CA uniquely succeptible to such spikes? Because I can't recall them in other parts of the country, but remember them in CA in my youth and several times in the past few years And if so . . . it doesn't really seem like a tail event

      7:31 PM - 17 Aug 2020
      • 8 Likes
      • Gordon Mohr ꧁👁👁꧂ acid shill halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Charles NLRG Loves Recursive Guises Qoheleth
      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @interpretantion

          While weather does play a role, California is not uniquely susceptible to the demand spikes. The rolling blackouts in the Enron era were artificial supply shortages. The sad part about this week is that they didn't actually hit a demand peak. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/business/california-blackouts.html …

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
        3. Mihoda‏ @Mihoda 17 Aug 2020
          Replying to @Mihoda @eigenrobot @interpretantion

          The blackouts were planned based on forecasts and then never called off when the forecasts failed to materialize. This is just incompetence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Manuel Hernandez  🇺🇸‏ @manuelhe 17 Aug 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @Mihoda @interpretantion

          Highly populous state where every home has AC. I’d bet there’s a study where incremental rise in temp results in exponential increase in power consumption. And more of those homes are inland now than when you were a kid.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. ChrisA‏ @19CLiberalChris 17 Aug 2020
          Replying to @manuelhe @eigenrobot and

          Sounds ideal match for PV with peak demand when hot and sunny, why doesn’t the power company add more solar?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. wapiti‏ @wapiti96775335 17 Aug 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @Mihoda @interpretantion

          See net demand chart: http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx … Not so much spike. Solar goes down when sun goes down or cloud cover. Has to be made up with hydro imports or nat gas. Import transmission lines can become constrained (cuz physics) by high in-state demand, fires, etc...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. wapiti‏ @wapiti96775335 17 Aug 2020
          Replying to @wapiti96775335 @eigenrobot and

          The afternoon ramp has been made worse by solar. Internal constraints have been made worse by nuclear shutdown. Transmission infrastructure hasn't kept up. Minimizing risks to the western grid requires limiting California demand.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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