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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 10 Aug 2020

      eigenrobot Retweeted

      so one standard theory of crime is that p(commit crime) is a decreasing function of p(caught | commit crime) all else equal no idea what the effect of this is but making a big deal of it is likely worse for crime rates than doing it quietly bc it changes beliefs about risks https://twitter.com/bronzebarbarian/status/1293052233274159106 …

      eigenrobot added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      7 replies 1 retweet 39 likes
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    2. ego wrenna - 10k words‏ @egocv 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      I guess you could keep the incentives the same by really ramping up the perception of intensity of punishment.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @egocv

      yeah E[cost] would have been more correct but unpacking that is cumbersome

      11:00 PM - 10 Aug 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • NLRG Loves Recursive Guises Look up Knuffelberen ego wrenna - 10k words
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. livenotbylies‏ @nicestnisus 11 Aug 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @egocv

          Empirically this turns out to be incorrect Theoretically expected value is p*E But I think it's been reasonably well demonstrated that criminal actors are MUCH more sensitive to a higher p with a relatively low E, and raising E (death penalty, longer sentences) doesn't deter much

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. ego wrenna - 10k words‏ @egocv 11 Aug 2020
          Replying to @nicestnisus @eigenrobot

          ego wrenna - 10k words Retweeted Alessandro (139/380 figured bass exercises)

          More on this:https://twitter.com/polisisti/status/1293171513219330050?s=20 …

          ego wrenna - 10k words added,

          Alessandro (139/380 figured bass exercises) @polisisti
          Replying to @egocv @eigenrobot
          It turns out that criminals don't really use expected value thinking. The perceived probability of getting caught is much more important in someone's decision in the moment whether they'll commit a crime than is the perceived severity of punishment. Book: https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691148649/when-brute-force-fails …
          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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