so one standard theory of crime is that p(commit crime) is a decreasing function of p(caught | commit crime) all else equal no idea what the effect of this is but making a big deal of it is likely worse for crime rates than doing it quietly bc it changes beliefs about risks https://twitter.com/bronzebarbarian/status/1293052233274159106 …
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Empirically this turns out to be incorrect Theoretically expected value is p*E But I think it's been reasonably well demonstrated that criminal actors are MUCH more sensitive to a higher p with a relatively low E, and raising E (death penalty, longer sentences) doesn't deter much
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