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if you haven't already realized that reality is reading your TL and setting itself according to it, I'd urge you to consider it.
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It seems like bad timing on the part of the CCP. Neither potus candidate can commit to capitulating to a foreign power during an election campaign. We'd escalate hard-on-China the same way we escalate hard-on-crime.
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and if they think they can take Taiwan in a head to head against the 7th fleet.. lol
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Prop bet on whether they launch the invasion before or after the Three Gorges Dam collapses.
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i think no sane state would allow such betting markets it's like the problem with assassination markets but in reverse; rather than changing the future it leaks info betting markets on politics just exist because people don't secretly plan to win elections the way they plan wars
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the modern estimates aren't really out there, and I can try to track this source down, but I think an American estimation of the force required to invade Japanese-occupied Taiwan was something like 300,000, from 3 or 4 directions haven't seen word from natsec twitter though
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