Anyone get the impression reporters have just given up on things that are important I don't even mean the election which is fairly boring But like Three Gorges Dam gets zero coverage and its collapse could plausibly have a greater impact than Covidhttps://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1287910603705716736 …
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Replying to @eigenrobot
You've made multiple tweets about the dam. Why do you think it's a serious concern? IMO it's very much (western) media-driven
#fakenews I haven't seen any serious evidence to suggest that it's in any danger at all.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @ichiisan @eigenrobot
ichi Retweeted Sam
Here's a thread about the dam from what I consider to be a technical, objective source: https://twitter.com/Barton_options/status/1284517445068369920?s=20 … Another w/ recent sat. photos:https://twitter.com/Samir_Madani/status/1285341663540449282?s=20 …
ichi added,
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Replying to @ichiisan
entirely possible I have reasons why I think it's a not-implausibly-small-risk event, and it doesn't take much delta p(failure) for p(failure) * E[cost | failure] to become large
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Replying to @eigenrobot
If cost is a factor, why would you think the CCP can't avert this? Dam failure = existential threat. Thus there is no cost too high to pay for mitigation. Also y I think the chance is low. Not possible to hide the resulting maintenance/repair activity.
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Replying to @ichiisan @eigenrobot
One rule to keep in mind when thinking about CCP actions: when CCP sees something as a real+valid threat/opportunity, no expenses are spared. Thus, lack of obvious (& frantic) action around dam makes me conclude that risk is low/none.
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Replying to @ichiisan
considerata: - seems like rapid water release flooding downstream cities is pretty frantic - earlier reports of changing rhetoric about scale of flooding and capability of the dam - CCP confirmation of deformation, assume rhetoric more optimistic than reality?
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Replying to @eigenrobot
That's fair. In re: frantic. The best measure I've found is to examine Chinese SM sentiment. Media reporting tends to be biased one way or the other. On weibo, etc., ppl don't seem to be worried. Especially compared to past issues (real & perceived) like C19.
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Iiiinteresting, I have no visibility there but that's worth considering.
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