Anyone get the impression reporters have just given up on things that are important I don't even mean the election which is fairly boring But like Three Gorges Dam gets zero coverage and its collapse could plausibly have a greater impact than Covidhttps://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1287910603705716736 …
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Replying to @eigenrobot
You've made multiple tweets about the dam. Why do you think it's a serious concern? IMO it's very much (western) media-driven
#fakenews I haven't seen any serious evidence to suggest that it's in any danger at all.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @ichiisan @eigenrobot
ichi Retweeted Sam
Here's a thread about the dam from what I consider to be a technical, objective source: https://twitter.com/Barton_options/status/1284517445068369920?s=20 … Another w/ recent sat. photos:https://twitter.com/Samir_Madani/status/1285341663540449282?s=20 …
ichi added,
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Replying to @ichiisan
entirely possible I have reasons why I think it's a not-implausibly-small-risk event, and it doesn't take much delta p(failure) for p(failure) * E[cost | failure] to become large
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Replying to @eigenrobot
If cost is a factor, why would you think the CCP can't avert this? Dam failure = existential threat. Thus there is no cost too high to pay for mitigation. Also y I think the chance is low. Not possible to hide the resulting maintenance/repair activity.
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Replying to @ichiisan @eigenrobot
One rule to keep in mind when thinking about CCP actions: when CCP sees something as a real+valid threat/opportunity, no expenses are spared. Thus, lack of obvious (& frantic) action around dam makes me conclude that risk is low/none.
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Replying to @ichiisan
considerata: - seems like rapid water release flooding downstream cities is pretty frantic - earlier reports of changing rhetoric about scale of flooding and capability of the dam - CCP confirmation of deformation, assume rhetoric more optimistic than reality?
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Replying to @eigenrobot @ichiisan
I think it's more likely that the dam holds than it breaks, but 1/20 is still pretty bad here
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Additional note is that they blew up some dams elsewhere which seems pretty frantic as well
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