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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 28 Jul 2020

      eigenrobot Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))

      Anyone get the impression reporters have just given up on things that are important I don't even mean the election which is fairly boring But like Three Gorges Dam gets zero coverage and its collapse could plausibly have a greater impact than Covidhttps://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1287910603705716736 …

      eigenrobot added,

      (((Harry Enten)))Verified account @ForecasterEnten
      We're under 100 days til election day (and way less than that til some people start voting via mail/absentee), and the election isn't close to being the top story right now. That's not something a lot of us are used to.
      36 replies 35 retweets 329 likes
      Show this thread
    2. ichi‏ @ichiisan 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      You've made multiple tweets about the dam. Why do you think it's a serious concern? IMO it's very much (western) media-driven #fakenews I haven't seen any serious evidence to suggest that it's in any danger at all.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. ichi‏ @ichiisan 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @ichiisan @eigenrobot

      ichi Retweeted Sam

      Here's a thread about the dam from what I consider to be a technical, objective source: https://twitter.com/Barton_options/status/1284517445068369920?s=20 … Another w/ recent sat. photos:https://twitter.com/Samir_Madani/status/1285341663540449282?s=20 …

      ichi added,

      SamVerified account @Samir_Madani
      And there we have her; a beautiful clear shot of the #ThreeGorgesDam, captured today (2020-07-20) by the one & only, @planetlabs #ChinaFloods 30.82° N, 111.00° E pic.twitter.com/OblyLBYSME
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @ichiisan

      entirely possible I have reasons why I think it's a not-implausibly-small-risk event, and it doesn't take much delta p(failure) for p(failure) * E[cost | failure] to become large

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. ichi‏ @ichiisan 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      If cost is a factor, why would you think the CCP can't avert this? Dam failure = existential threat. Thus there is no cost too high to pay for mitigation. Also y I think the chance is low. Not possible to hide the resulting maintenance/repair activity.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. ichi‏ @ichiisan 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @ichiisan @eigenrobot

      One rule to keep in mind when thinking about CCP actions: when CCP sees something as a real+valid threat/opportunity, no expenses are spared. Thus, lack of obvious (& frantic) action around dam makes me conclude that risk is low/none.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @ichiisan

      considerata: - seems like rapid water release flooding downstream cities is pretty frantic - earlier reports of changing rhetoric about scale of flooding and capability of the dam - CCP confirmation of deformation, assume rhetoric more optimistic than reality?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 28 Jul 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot @ichiisan

      I think it's more likely that the dam holds than it breaks, but 1/20 is still pretty bad here

      3:33 PM - 28 Jul 2020
      • 1 Like
      • ichi
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 28 Jul 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @ichiisan

          Additional note is that they blew up some dams elsewhere which seems pretty frantic as well

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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